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"We have forecasted that power demand from data centers is going to nearly quadruple over the next 15 years. … The data centers are certainly the largest power users of any industry, and they represent about 20% of our electricity sales in Virginia.
Over the next 15 years we're going to be building a lot of new power plants in Virginia, and a lot of new electric transmission infrastructure."

wmra.org/2024-06-04/ghosts-in-

Racks of servers line a corridor at the University of Virginia's data center.
WMRA · Ghosts in the machine: data centers in our regionBy Randi B. Hagi

@gerrymcgovern I don’t see that as necessarily a problem provided the electricity generation is by renewables

Tom Ritchford

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern In fact, it's a huge problem.

We needed to decarbonize our society by 90% in less than 10 years to avoid climate disaster. We won't hit that target, not even close.

Every watt of additional power that we pile on makes that target even further away.

Imagine CO2 was a monetary debt. We are in a huge amount of debt; every year we go further into debt.

Now people are proposing spending even more CO2/debt on data centers.

1/

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern When asked, "How are we going to afford this?" they answer, "We'll just use renewables==earn more money!"

But we aren't even getting close to breaking even. More CO2 expenditure puts us even further into the red.

I see the argument you make all the time. It just horrifies me. We can't afford it!! We're losing the war!!

I wish that I could show you what the world 100 years today will look like, even just for one minute.

@TomSwirly @gerrymcgovern I don’t what arguments you’re accusing me of making “all the time” but those of us who live in countries producing 110% renewable electricity 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 can afford to have a different attitude to data centres.
Or you could build them in Costa Rica, where they have 100% renewable electricity .

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern

I am accusing you of making the very argument you just made in your post.

This argument is utterly, utterly wrong. CO2 is not a local issue!

Our carbon budget is global. Your power should not be used for new energy expenditures, but to replace existing, essential expenditures that use fossil fuels.

I'm sorry to sound angry: but I am. We are going to kill our planetary ecosystem: it is by far the biggest crime in history.

@TomSwirly @gerrymcgovern I’m afraid your anger is misplaced. You are preaching to the converted. But you need to direct your anger to the people that can do something about it - the politicians in your own country. Without wishing to sound holier than thou, our government has responded to the public and not only talks the talk but walks the walk.
Should we be held back by countries dragging their fossil feet?

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern I live in France, where a majority of the electrical power is nuclear.

I'm very, very glad that Paraguay has done its share. It doesn't change the cold equations at all.

We need to decarbonize by 90% in a tiny amount of time in order to avoid catastrophe. That means degrowth everywhere, and particularly, no new unnecessary mass consumption of power anywhere.

(Me? No car, no kids, plant-based diet, etc...)

@TomSwirly
You're 100% right. This idea that "renewables" will save us is a dangerous illusion. We still think we can keep growing when to have any hope of survival we need a massive contraction. And these so-called renewables require a huge surge of mining, stressing already stressed biodiversity, water, soil. And even as "renewables" grow, oil, gas and coal grows too because the economy is growing.
@peterbrown

@gerrymcgovern @TomSwirly so how do you suggest we produce electricity? Or is it your suggestion that we should do without it completely?

@peterbrown
In the context of a massive reduction in energy use, wind, solar, etc., can make sense. A huge correction in human consumption is coming. We can make that correction or it will be made to us, but the limits of consumption are coming quickly into sight. We must radically slow down.
@TomSwirly

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern In order to not die, we need to stop the relentless, exponential growth in energy use and reduce our usage.

The exponential growth in renewable energy has not seen a decrease in fossil fuel use, which still grows exponentially, though slower than renewables.

But we need to decrease our use of fossil fuels by over 90% in a decade to avoid climate disaster. We won't make it, and we'll miss the target even more if we build huge numbers of data centers.

1/

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern In order to not heat the Earth anymore, we have a tiny CO2 budget.

As of today, animal agriculture alone consumes 150% of that budget; concrete, 50-100% of that budget; non-animal agriculture, about 50%; data centers are about 30% of that budget, expected to rise to 50% in the next five years; concrete is about 50%; transportation is about 600% of that budget; heating and cooking, about 300%.

2/

@peterbrown @gerrymcgovern Imagine your family earns €10k after taxes but spends €100k a year. In that context, any new expenses would be right out.

In exactly the same way, we cannot afford any new usages of power. Any new non-emitting energy we create needs to immediately be used to replace existing fossil fuel use.

I share your concern
ISTM that the greatest challenge is to use the growing demand towards growing renewables capacity even faster, so that it quickly attracts demand that currently goes to non-renewables.
that's not a given, and there's a significant risk for the growth in demand to drive increase in non-renewables, but the economics of renewables are so good that I wouldn't rule out their taking over either, especially if (and that's a big if) public policies shift the economic incentives the right way